El Niño Forecast Strongest On Record Threatening Extreme Weather

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has updated its forecast to indicate that the current El Niño event will persist through February 2027, with near-certain odds. The agency now assesses the phenomenon will become the strongest on record, extending its duration beyond the previously projected end in November 2026. This shift in timing and intensity increases the danger of extreme weather globally, as ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific continue to rise.

Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific are already well above average. The widely used Niño 3.4 index, which measures these anomalies, strengthened markedly from +1.5 °C above normal during May-July 2026 to +2.0 °C above normal in July. Weekly values subsequently increased further between late July and mid-August, ranging from approximately +2.2 °C to +2.6 °C above average. Even more exceptional warmth is present below the ocean surface, where subsurface temperatures in some areas exceeded +8°C above average during July and early August.

The combination of surface and subsurface conditions provides strong support for continued El Niño conditions and the potential for further strengthening during the coming months. While the ocean warming is a natural occurrence, the sheer magnitude of the heat recorded is unprecedented in the 50-year history of the WMO.

The 2023-24 El Niño resulted in 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. The current event poses a similar risk for the year 2026, according to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. Countries face higher risks of floods, droughts, and extreme heat as the phenomenon intensifies. The WMO notes that while the strength of an El Niño event alone does not determine its severity in any individual country, it increases the likelihood of major changes in rainfall, temperatures, and atmospheric circulation across many regions.

WMO officials emphasize that extreme weather events are a certainty, but the resulting destruction is not inevitable. The organization is working closely with partners across the United Nations and the humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence needed to support disaster management. This focus on preparedness is critical because the effects vary according to location and season and can be modified by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The agency has launched a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to deliver the forecasts and services required to save lives and livelihoods.

As the world enters this period of heightened climatic volatility, the gap between rising risks and the commitment to take climate action becomes the central challenge for policymakers. The coming years will test the resilience of infrastructure and emergency response systems in nations vulnerable to these shifting patterns. Without significant investment in early warning systems and adaptive infrastructure, the economic and human costs of these events could outweigh the benefits of mitigation efforts.